Rates, inflation and oil revenues: how the week ended in Eurasian economies
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has presented its weekly macroeconomic review covering Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan. Key developments include a key rate hike in Armenia, further inflation slowdown in Kazakhstan, a decrease in Belarus's gold and foreign exchange reserves, and an increase in oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget.
Armenia: Central Bank raises rate to 7%
Annual inflation in Armenia stood at 4.3% in October, unchanged from the previous month. Food price growth slowed from 6.2% to 5.6%, while non-food goods and services became more expensive at a faster pace. Inflation in these categories accelerated to 2.8% and 3.2% respectively.
Against this backdrop, on November 3 the Central Bank of Armenia raised its key rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7%.
The regulator attributed its decision to inflation exceeding the target range, signs of domestic demand overheating and external price pressures. According to EDB forecasts, inflation in the country will reach 4.4% by the end of 2026, and the key rate may rise to 7.25%.
Belarus: gold and foreign exchange reserves decrease by $376.5 million
Belarus's international reserves fell by $376.5 million in October to stand at $14.257 billion as of November 1.
The primary decline came from monetary gold. Its value within the reserves dropped by $461 million amid falling global prices for the precious metal.
At the same time, foreign currency reserve assets grew by $89.1 million over the month.
Since the beginning of the year, their volume has increased by $540.1 million, and their share in the total reserve structure reached 42.7% compared to 38.4% at the beginning of 2026.
Kazakhstan: inflation slows to 9.2%
Annual inflation in Kazakhstan has been declining for 13 consecutive months. In October, the figure was 9.2% compared to 9.3% in September and a peak of 12.9% in September 2025.
The main driver of the slowdown was food. Annual food price growth dropped to 7.6%.
In October, food products increased in price by 0.2%, compared to 1% in the same month of the previous year.
An additional factor was the slowdown in gasoline price growth to 8.6% year-on-year.
According to EDB forecasts, inflation in Kazakhstan will be around 9% by the end of 2026.
Russia: federal budget oil and gas revenues reach 971 billion rubles
Russia's federal budget oil and gas revenues grew by 9.3% in October compared to the same month in 2025, reaching 971.2 billion rubles.
This is the highest figure since April 2025.
One of the growth factors was a 67.2% increase in mineral extraction tax revenues amid high export oil prices.
At the same time, overall revenue growth was restrained by payments made to oil companies under the fuel damper—a compensation mechanism used to limit domestic fuel price growth.
Despite the October increase in inflows, oil and gas revenues for the Russian budget in January–October remained 14.1% lower than in the same period last year.
Uzbekistan: Central Bank keeps rate at 14%
The Central Bank of Uzbekistan kept its main rate at 14% per annum on November 4.
The decision was made amid declining inflation expectations among the population. In September, expected price growth for the next 12 months was 8.7%.
However, domestic demand in the country remains high and inflationary pressure persists. According to the regulator's assessment, maintaining tight monetary conditions is necessary to further slow down price growth.
The Central Bank also takes into account external risks, including changes in global food and energy prices.
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Svetlana Begunova
