Kyrgyzstan's external debt exceeds annual exports 2.15 times, World Bank says
Kyrgyzstan's total external debt, including public and private sector liabilities, reached $12.526 billion at the end of 2025, exceeding the annual volume of exports by 2.15 times. In the International Debt Report 2026, the World Bank also drew attention to the combination of a high debt burden and the country's dependence on the import of certain food products.
According to data from the report, Kyrgyzstan's external debt reached $12.526 billion at the end of 2025, an increase of 4.8% over the year. Its ratio to gross national income was 56%, and to the annual volume of exports — 215%. External debt service reached 28% of export earnings and 7% of gross national income.
This refers to total external debt, which includes obligations of both the public and private sectors.
For comparison, in the Europe and Central Asia region, the corresponding figures were 49%, 152%, 25% and 8%. Among countries eligible for concessional financing from the International Development Association (IDA), they were 41.2%, 177.2%, 16% and 3.7%.
Debt burden and food import dependency
Another aspect of the study is the dependence of domestic food supply on imports. In World Bank charts, Kyrgyzstan is noted in two commodity categories: oils and fats, as well as fruits.
In oils and fats, the country exceeds both thresholds used by the authors for analysis:
- external debt is at least 150% of the annual export volume;
- net imports provide at least 30% of domestic product supply.
In fruits, Kyrgyzstan exceeds the first threshold, while import dependency remains below the second.
The authors use these benchmarks to identify combinations of debt and trade vulnerabilities. By themselves, they do not mean that the country is in a debt crisis.
According to the researchers, heavy dependence on imported products can amplify the impact of external shocks on the domestic market. Rising global prices, supply disruptions and higher logistics costs can increase the cost of food, while high debt relative to export earnings can limit the economy's ability to withstand such changes.
How external debt is linked to the availability of healthy nutrition
The study also revealed a link between debt burden and the availability of healthy nutrition during major external shocks.
In 2019–2021 and 2021–2023, countries with higher debt relative to exports were more likely to experience a deterioration in the availability of healthy diets. However, in 2023–2025, no statistically significant relationship was observed.
At the same time, the authors emphasize that the identified dependence does not prove a direct causal link between the size of external debt and food availability.
Alexander Kanunnikov
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